Wednesday, April 20, 2005
On 4/12 I gave odds of 3 to 1 that he will not be confirmed by the committee. They are now 10 to 1. He is as Patrick Gray III, then acting director of the FBI, to become the fall said guy for Watergate and to leave him "twisting slowly, slowly in the wind." i.e. a free shot for anyone with a grip.
There are a few rules in the process of getting a controversial candidate through the process. First, there have to be equal campaigns for and against. There is a sizable anti-Bolton coalition and he has not mobilized a forceful neo-con counter attack. Second, avoid, dissemble, back off but do not lie. As in tax matters it is important not to cross the line between avoidance and illegal evasion. Mr. Bolton is lying about the Cuban statement “Cuba is a real and present WMD danger” vs. they may have some capacity in WMD. He was wrong and told he was wrong by the professional so he tried to get them shut up. Third do not argue with the committee. Say “I appreciate your concerns Senator and will work with you on this.” Dr. Rice was great at this. Say “Maybe I have been misunderstood” That was then but this is now. Whatever any senator says do not argue but pretend to be concerned and to take their suggestions as valid. It is like a defense of a thesis, defer to the committee. They do not like arrogance and see themselves as the top dogs. Be humble before the egos of elected officials. Bolton has failed all three; he does not have all his allies mobilized while the other side has done its homework, he has lied and that will come out today, (not a minor issue) and he has been argumentative and not submissive enough. My theory is that Dr. Rice has sand bagged him as a way of getting rid of the very dangerous man by setting him up for a fall. The appointment was absurd on its face so either it is very stupid (something Dr. Rice is not) or very clever to weaken the extreme neo-cons in the State Department and foreign policy establishment.
There are a few rules in the process of getting a controversial candidate through the process. First, there have to be equal campaigns for and against. There is a sizable anti-Bolton coalition and he has not mobilized a forceful neo-con counter attack. Second, avoid, dissemble, back off but do not lie. As in tax matters it is important not to cross the line between avoidance and illegal evasion. Mr. Bolton is lying about the Cuban statement “Cuba is a real and present WMD danger” vs. they may have some capacity in WMD. He was wrong and told he was wrong by the professional so he tried to get them shut up. Third do not argue with the committee. Say “I appreciate your concerns Senator and will work with you on this.” Dr. Rice was great at this. Say “Maybe I have been misunderstood” That was then but this is now. Whatever any senator says do not argue but pretend to be concerned and to take their suggestions as valid. It is like a defense of a thesis, defer to the committee. They do not like arrogance and see themselves as the top dogs. Be humble before the egos of elected officials. Bolton has failed all three; he does not have all his allies mobilized while the other side has done its homework, he has lied and that will come out today, (not a minor issue) and he has been argumentative and not submissive enough. My theory is that Dr. Rice has sand bagged him as a way of getting rid of the very dangerous man by setting him up for a fall. The appointment was absurd on its face so either it is very stupid (something Dr. Rice is not) or very clever to weaken the extreme neo-cons in the State Department and foreign policy establishment.
